【禁闻】近七成中国人抱怨物价 专家解读

【禁闻】近七成中国人抱怨物价 专家解读

【新唐人2011年7月6日讯】大陆央行7月4号发布第2季度调查报告，68.2%的居民认为物
价「高，难以接受」，比上一季度增加1.3个百分点。尤其是猪肉价格急速上涨，引发
民众强烈不满。央行官员指出，政府财政赤字是通货膨胀的深层次原因。而海内外经济
学家则担忧中国经济崩盘。

央行的这份报告，是对全中国50个城市2万储户进行的问卷调查，对当前房价水
平，74.3%的居民认为「过高，难以接受」。

而国家统计局4号公布的「50个城市主要食品平均价格变动情况」，6月下旬，猪肉价格
与5月下旬相比，涨幅达到15%；猪肉后腿价格达到每公斤30.58元，五花肉每公斤
29.72元。除土豆外，所有蔬菜价格都上涨，大白菜比6月中旬上涨17%。

不过，中国国际经济交流中心研究员王军指出，实际数字比政府公布的要高得多。

王军（中国国际经济交流中心研究员）：「我对他所有的数字我就不信，他们公布的数
字确实跟我理解的差得太远了，我是生活在这，跟他公布的我有时候自己就觉得不对
头。而且什么今年下半年物价就可以下来。」

7月5号，《新浪》微博发起「肉价上涨的影响」投票活动，53%的网友表示会少吃猪
肉，减少开销；19%的人表示会变成「食草动物」。

而中共却花费巨资大搞党庆，人民网《强国论坛》的网友讽刺说：「共产主义会免费分
房子么？能吃得上猪肉么？」、「唱红歌就不用吃猪肉了！」、「猪肉涨价撕碎国人梦
想。」等

4号，《理财周刊》发表经济学家郎咸平的文章指出，资料显示，今年（2011年）第一
季度出栏的生猪是2.3亿头，比去年增长2.5%，不存在供应不足的情况，成本饲料上涨
也很有限。

郎咸平指出，猪肉价格上涨的真正原因，是增发货币所导致的通货膨胀造成的，这个时
候真正应该担忧的是地方政府的债务危机。

专家普遍预计，6月消费物价指数CPI涨幅将超过6%。《新华社》下属的《经济参考报》
指出，央行4号的例会声明，可能即将会有加息的动作。

近日，中国《财经》杂志发表「瑞信证券」中国研究主管陈昌华的研究文章说，截至今
年（2011年）3月底，中国债务占GDP的比例，实际已经高达166%，这对中国实体经济和
银行构成威胁。

审计署估算，地方政府债务已经达到10.7万亿人民币。而国际评级机构「穆迪」5号表
示，大陆审计署低估了3.5万亿人民币，令银行业可能遭遇更大损失，进而威胁到信用
评级。

4号，全国政协常委兼经济委员会副主任吴敬琏发表文章指出，政府（中共政权）是经
济增长方式难以转变的原因。政府（中共政权）仍然保持着计划经济条件下，那样过大
的配置资源的权力，而且，政绩考核标准仍然以GDP的增长速度为主。政府（中共政权
）干预微观经济活动，这是中国现在遇到的最大的危险。

北京天则经济研究所理事长茅于轼：「本来市场能够纠正自己的结构扭曲，但是中国的
市场比较弱，而是国家在支配，现在就是国进民退，政府配置资源越来越多，就是市场
在缩小，政府在扩大。」

财新《新世纪》杂志4号发表经济学家谢国忠的文章指出，通货膨胀是中国增长模式的
结果。如果通胀得不到控制，将会导致社会动乱。

而《经济观察报》4号则报导，麻省理工学院商学院教授黄亚生表示，中国总体家庭消
费只占GDP35%，而奢侈消费却成为世界第一、第二，他认为这是中国经济崩盘的预兆。

他指出，「转型」已经变成政府一句空洞的口号，但实际上很多是「反改革」的、是逆
转。中国迫切需要一场「政治体制改革」，因为来之不易的经济成果正在受畸形制度和
特权阶层的侵蚀。

新唐人记者周玉林、李元翰、肖颜采访报导。

68% Find Prices Too High

On July 4, People's Bank of China (PBC) releasedits Q2 survey report,
indicating 68.2% of the peoplethink prices are higher than acceptable,with
1.3% increase from the figure of Q1.For example, pork price has increased
sharply,causing strong dissatisfaction among people.PBC officials point out
that the government deficitis the root cause of the inflation.Chinese and
overseas economists are concernedabout the danger of Chinese economy
collapse.

PBC's report is based on a survey conductedamongst its 20,000 customers in
50 Chinese cities.Regarding housing prices, 74.3% of people thinkthe prices
are too high to accept.

China's National Bureau of Statistics releasedon July 4 its "Average Price
Changesof Key Food Products in 50 Cities."In the 2nd half of June, pork
price increased 15%compared to that a month ago.Price of pork ham is
RMB30.58 per kilo.Almost all of vegetable prices have increased too.Cabbage
increased 17% compared with mid-June.China International Economic and
Exchange Center(CIEEC) researcher Wang Jun points out, however,that the
actual number is much higher.

Wang Jun (researcher, CIEEC): "I do not believein the data released by the
government,which is far from what I understand.I live here and I feel what
they published is wrong.I don't accept their say of price decrease in Q2."

On July 5, a poll was set up on a sina.net blog,asking about the impact of
meat price hike.53% of netizens said that they would eat less pork,19%
indicated they would become "vegetarians."

Meanwhile, the Chinese Communist Party ( CCP )spent lots of money to
celebrate its anniversary.Netizens asked on the people.com forum:"Does
communism allocate a free house?Can it help one to afford pork?Will
revolutionary songs stop the need to eat pork!The pork price hike tears up
people's dreams."

On July 4, mag.e-moneyweekly.com publishedthe economist Lang Xianping's
article, indicatingthat as per Q1 statistics, pigs count was 230,000,or
2.5% increase over the last year. Thus price hikeis not because of
oversupply, nor cost increase.

Lang Xianping thinks the real reason for price hikeof pork is the inflation
caused by money printing.The real concern is local governments' debt crises.

Experts expect June's price index to surpass 6%.Economic Information Daily
of the Xinhuan.netpointed out that PBC's announcement on July 4might lead
to interest rate increase.

Recently, China's Caijin magazine publishedan article by Chen Changhua, the
Chiefof China Study of Credit Suisse Securities.Chen points out that up to
March 2011,China's debt to GDP ratio was as high as 166%,a threat to
China's economy and banking system.

National Bureau of Audit estimated thatlocal governments' debt is RMB10.7
trillion.However, credit rating agency Moody's indicatedon July 5 that
there is another RMB3.5 trillion debt,,which might cause more serious bank
lossesand damage the Chinese banks' credit ratings.

On July 4, National Committee of CPPCC'sStanding Committee member and
Deputy Directorof Economy Commission, Wu Jinglian publishedan article,
indicating that the CCP governmentis the challenge of China's economic
transformation.The government is still running planned economy,and has too
much control over resources.Officials' performance indicator is still GDP
increase.The government's intervention to micro-economyis one of the
biggest challenges in China.

Mao Yushi (president of Tianze Economic Institute):"The market should be
self-correcting.But the market in China is relatively weak,and it is
controlled by the government.So the government is moving forwardby
controlling more and more resources.Therefore, the private sector is
shrinking,while the state-owned firms are expanding."

On July 4, magazin.caing.com published an articleby economist Xie Guozhong.
Xie states,inflation is the result of China's development model.If not
controlled, it will lead to social turmoil.

Economic Observer published on July 4 an articleby MIT Business School
Prof. Huang Yasheng.Huang shows that China's family expense accountsfor
only 35% of GDP, but China's expenseon luxury products is the highest in
the world.He thinks this is a sign of economic collapse.

He pointed out that transformation is merelyan empty slogan. Many officials
are against reform.China needs a political reform, otherwise,its economic
achievements will continue to be damagedby the deformed political system
and the privileged.

NTD reporters Zhou Yulin, Li Yuanhan and Xiao Yan 2011-07-06
10:32:13http://www.ntdtv.com/xtr/gb/2011/07/06/a555985.html.-【禁闻】近七成
中国人抱怨物价-专家解读.html