【禁闻】俄学者：中国或步苏联解体后尘

【禁闻】俄学者：中国或步苏联解体后尘

【新唐人2011年5月20日讯】一名俄国记者在北京的一个讨论会上警告说，如果中共重
犯苏共错误，在贪污腐败、镇压异议人士和民族政策等方面，步苏联后尘，中国也将解
体。中国问题专家认为，中共灭亡不可逆转，让共产党解体于无形是上策。

最近在北京刚结束一场题为「多民族社会中的民主机制」的讨论会。参加会议的是俄罗
斯和中国官方背景的学者。

著名记者和政论家舍甫琴柯等俄国学者在会上，批判了苏联民族政策。舍甫琴柯警告
说，中国可能重复苏联解体命运。

分别在俄国官方电视台和广播电台，主持政论节目的舍甫琴柯：认为，两个原因导致苏
联解体。一是苏联共产党的贪污腐败；二是迫害异议人士，把批评声音当成外国敌对势
力针对苏联的阴谋。

而中国在新疆和针对达赖喇嘛的做法，同样是使用苏联式的处理手段。舍甫琴柯建议中
国吸取苏联教训，否则中国的统一不会永恒。

俄罗斯独立政治评论人士帕德拉比涅克说，从俄罗斯角度看中国，中国很多方面更像苏
联。他举例说，苏联当年忽视民生，经济建设牺牲民众利益，中国今天的经济增长，同
样建立在牺牲工人利益的基础上。还有，在新疆和西藏少数民族政策上也像苏联，对待
异议人士也与苏联完全相同。

人权律师、作家郭国汀认为，全世界九十个共产党中有四十四个夺取了政权，如今只剩
下中国、越南、朝鲜、古巴和老挝。根本的原因是由于共产主义的机制本身病入膏
肓：共产党国家普遍对异议人士、政治犯疯狂镇压，秘密警察泛滥，破坏法治，用暴力
制造恐怖，群体屠杀，抢劫教会，清洗异己等。中共政权在这些方面确实比其他共产党
国家利用的更极致，也必垮台。

郭国汀："现在唯一的中共捞稻草，为强撑它的政权的依据是什么呢，就是所谓的经济
发展，这也是为什么邓小平提出"发展是硬道理"的这么一个原因。因为如果中国经济出
现危机或一塌糊涂，中共政权肯定撑不下去。"

原北京大学教授、史学家苏明感叹：所谓的改革三十年，老百姓是受害者，共党官员们
是最大的受益者。现在中国贫富的差距越来越大；政治上极度的腐败；公民的自由和权
利时常受到侵害；经济成就靠造假；朝野之间矛盾尖锐、一触即发。

苏明：上海交通大学做的题为《二零一零年中国危机管理年度报告》中指出，在二零一
零全年之内，平均每五天就发生一次大型的骚乱和暴动；平均每二分半钟就发生一次群
体的抗议事件。

苏教授认为，这说明中国大陆随时都可能暴发遍及全国的全民大起义、大革命。这种现
像在历史上也是重复的，都是发生在历代王朝崩溃的前夕。

中国人权活动家唐柏桥稍早前表示：法轮功学员解体中共的做法，对全世界都有启发作
用。比如退党运动、传九评、神韵、网路反封锁，还有讲真相，达到了很高的境界，退
党运动实际上起到了改变灵魂深处的作用。

唐柏桥认为，在这没有硝烟的战争中，起到了不战而屈人之兵的作用，让共产党解体于
无形。现在的共产党四面楚歌、被动挨打，这和传九评、促退党、突破网路封锁都有直
接的关系。

新唐人记者宋风、肖颜综合报导。

China to Follow SU

A Russian journalist warned at a forum in Beijingthat if the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP)repeated the Soviet Union's (SU) mistakesin
corruption, repression of dissidentsand ethnic policies, China will
disintegrate too.China issue experts believe the extinctionof CCP is
irreversible.It is the best to disintegrate it with no trace.

A forum 『Democracy in Multi-Ethnic Society'has concluded in Beijing.
Participants wereRussian and Chinese scholarswith official backgrounds.

Shevchenko, a well-known journalistand commentator, and other Russian
scholars,criticized ethnic policy of SU. Shevchenko warnedthat China might
repeat the SU's fate.

Shevchenko hosted political talk showson Russian TV and radio. He said
disintegrationof SU had two reasons. First was the corruptionof the Party,
the second was the persecutionof dissidents, or "conspirators" against the
SU.

China used SU-style methods on Xinjiangand the Dalai Lama. Shevchenko
suggestedto learn from SU's disintegration,or else the unification of China
will not be eternal.

Parchilinishqa, an independent politicalcommentator in Russia, said China
is more like SU.For example, SU ignored the people's livelihood,emphasizing
the economic constructionat people's expense. similar to what China
does.Policies on ethnic minorities in Xinjiang and Tibet,and dissidents,
are also the same as those of SU.

Guo Guoting, human rights lawyer and writer,thinks that among the 90
communist partiesin the world, 44 ceased power. Now China,Vietnam, Korea,
Cuba and Laos remain.The fundamental reason is communism itself,which is
ailing. Communists persecute dissidents,political prisoners. 『Secret
police' are everywhere.Communists destroy the rule of law, creating
terrorwith violence, genocide, looting churches,"cleaning dissidents," etc.
The CCP went to extremesin all these areas, and will fall undoubtedly.

Guo Guoting said: "Now only CCP holds power.It is based on the so called
economic development,which is also why Deng Xiaoping proposed"development
is the last word." If the economyfell in crisis or in a mess, the regime
won't survive."

Su Ming, former professor in Beijing Universityand historian, said in the
"3 Decade Reform"the people are the victims, and CCP officialsare the
biggest beneficiary. In China now the gapbetween rich & poor is growing,
political corruptionis at an all-time high, civil liberties and rightsare
often violated, and economic successis only by fraud. There is a
contradictionbetween ruling and opposition parties.

Su Ming: "A report entitled 『2010 Annual Reportof China Crisis Management'
in Shanghai,Jiao Tong University said that in 2010,on average, a major
disturbance or riotoccurred every five days; a group protestoccurred every
2.5 minutes."

Su said this indicates that it is possible at any timenow in China to break
out a nationwide waveof uprisings and revolution. Historically,this happens
in the eve of a dynasty' collapse.

Tang Baiqiao, Chinese human rights activist said,disintegration of CCP by
Falun Gong practitioners,is enlightening to the world. Quitting the
CCP,distributing the 『Nine Commentaries,' Shen Yun,breaking the Internet
blockade,has reached every corner of the globe.Quitting the CCP purifies
souls.

Tang Baiqiao said that this war with no smoke,conquers the enemy with no
fighting, leadingto CCP's disintegration. Now the CCP is
embattled,vulnerable to attack. This is closely relatedto the distribution
of the 『Nine Commentaries'the campaign to 『Quit the CCP',and the breaking
of China's Internet blockade.

NTD reporters Song Feng and Xiao Yan 2011-05-20
09:44:34http://www.ntdtv.com/xtr/gb/2011/05/20/a534281.html.-【禁闻】俄学
者：中国或步苏联解体后尘.html