【禁闻】中国高储蓄率导致资产泡沫？

【禁闻】中国高储蓄率导致资产泡沫？

【新唐人2011年6月1日讯】在最近举办的"2011年陆家嘴金融论坛"上，大陆央行行长周
小川表示，中国的高储蓄率容易刺激资产泡沫的产生。他的这个说法，其他专家是怎么
看的呢？中国的高储蓄率是否真的会导致资产泡沫？请看报导。

中国一直是一个高储蓄率国家。从2009年的资料显示，中国的储蓄率高达46%。而今年
4月末，人民币存款馀额达到75.62万亿元。

储蓄率是指个人或家庭可支配的收入总额中，储蓄所占的百分比。中国为什么储蓄率如
此之高呢？

南卡罗莱纳州大学教授谢田认为，这其中有传统文化的因素，但更主要的是，在中共统
治下，社会保障体系不完善造成的。

谢田："中国老百姓最害怕的是什么呢？一个是养老金、退休金；一个是医疗的费
用；一个上学的费用。中国人民穷怕了，苦怕了，对未来又没有依托感，对政府没有信
任，所以就造成中国大陆人的储蓄率非常之高。"

据统计，中国有8亿农民。2009年，中共推出"新农村养老保险"政策。中国社科院《
2011年法治蓝皮书》提出，"新农保"的费率水准和国家标准很低，参保农民每月仅有养
老金99元，根本难以保障农民的基本生活。

今年两会期间，据官方统计资料显示，有65.5%的受访者认为中国的"医疗费用过高"。
此外，中国大学收费高已经成为民众的一个沉重负担，但据《时代商报》一项调查显
示，沈阳的七成幼儿园收费高于大学。

中国的高储蓄率是否导致资产泡沫的产生呢？经济专家、简天伦博士认为，这个说法并
不正确。他认为，造成中国房地产泡沫的原因，与中国的贫富悬殊社会现象有很大关
系。

今年4月，招商银行和贝恩管理顾问公司联合发布了《2011中国私人财富报告》。报告
显示，2010年，可投资资产一千万人民币以上的中国高净值人士数量达50万人，人均持
有可投资资产约3000万人民币，共持有可投资资产15万亿人民币。这部分人仅占中国人
口的万分之四，而他们所持有的资产相当于中国个人投资总资产的25%。

简天伦："他们在2009年、2010、2011年，他们占全国个人可投资资产的比率逐年上
升，由23%到24%到25%。所以，由这么少的人口，占有这么多的可投资资产，这个地
方，我觉得是中国房地产泡沫和其他资产泡沫最大的原因之一。"

按照中国高净值人群地域分布来看，北京、上海、浙江、江苏、广东都超过了3 万人。
而这5个省市的房价在中国也是名列前茅。

最近两年，中国股票市场低迷，关于"股票市场要崩盘"的消息不断传来。谢田表示，中
国股票市场也是中国权贵捞钱的场所。

英国《金融时报》专栏作家叶檀，形容中国的证券市场是一台吸血机器。她在她的文章
中提到，根据WIND资讯不完全统计，2010年上市的340多支新股中，平均每支新股上市
就有2.4位亿万富翁产生。与此形成鲜明对比的是，有调查显示，在股市中赚钱的股民
不足20%，近70%的股民亏钱。

但是，中国老百姓为什么还要把钱投入股票市场呢？

谢田："民间、外资企业、其他投资银行估计，中国的通货膨胀至少在10%以上或15%。
在这么高的通货膨胀之下，老百姓即使想储蓄，他也不敢储蓄，没办法储蓄。所以很多
人不得不把钱投入股市，而投入股市的钱，这些年也慢慢看清，实际上也是被大富、被
操纵金融市场的中共特权阶层给榨干了。"

谢田指出，不管是房地产泡沫还是股票市场的泡沫，始作俑者都是中共的权贵集团，而
与中国高储蓄根本没有关系。

新唐人记者李静，萧宇 采访报导

Asset Bubble Due To High Savings?

Central Bank of China' president, Zhou Xiaochuan,said in the Lujiazui
Financial Forum of 2011 thatChina's high saving rate might spawn asset
bubbles.Is this the case? What do other experts think?Here is NTD's
detailed report on the issue.

China is long known as a high saving rate country.2009 reports show the
saving rates to be up to 46%.RMB outstanding deposit is 75.6 trillion by
Apr.11.

Saving rate represents the percentage of savingsin individual's total
disposable income.Why does China have such a high saving rate?

Xie Tian, professor at University of North Carolina,said that Chinese
tradition is one of the reasons,but mostly this is due to the insecure
social systemunder the rule of Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Xie Tian: "Chinese people generally worryabout 3 things: retirement, health
and education.They have been kept poor for a long time,with no security for
the future, nor from the CCP,and that triggers the huge saving rate record."

There are reportedly 0.8 billion farmers in China.In 2009, CCP released New
Village Pension Scheme.According to the Law Blue Book of 2011, publishedby
the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.The standard rate of village pension
in the schemewas made notably low, with just RMB99 per month,far from
enough for a normal life.

During the two CCP congresses this year,it was reported that 65.5% of
interviewees thoughtthe medical expenses are too high.Chinese high
education charges are another burden.

Will China's high saving rate spawn asset bubbles?Economist Jian Tianlun
thinks otherwise.The real reason for China's property bubblesis the
remarkable wealth gap in China, believes Jian.

In April, China Merchants Bank and Bain companyjointly issued the China's
Individual wealth of 2011.It showed that by 2010, China had 500,000
HNWI(High Net Worth Individuals) able to investRMB10+ million and each
holding RMB30 millioninvestable, equating to a total of RMB15 trillion.This
group accounts 0.04% of China's population,but it enjoys 25% of China's
investment assets.

Jian Tianlun: "They enjoy an escalating ratein national individual
investment asset, with 23%,24% and 25% in 2009, 2010 and 2011
respectively.On account of that, I suggest that this is the problemtruly
causing the current Chinese property bubbles."

As to the Chinese HNWI distribution, more than30,000 of them are evident in
cities like Beijing,Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Guangdong,where the
house prices are highest in China.

China's stock market was in downturn the last 2 years.Rumors about collapse
of stock market are in the air.Xie Tian said that the stock market was a
placewhere those bigwigs lined their pockets.

Columnist in Financial Times, Ye Tan regardsChina's stock market as a
sucking machine.According to WIND in 2010, of the 340+ new stockslisted,
the average IPO generated 2.4 billionaires.In contrast, less than 20% of
the Chinese investorsmade a profit, with more than 70% being at a loss.

Why do Chinese investors keep investing in it?

Xie Tian: "According to both overseas investorsand other investment
institutions,China has 10-15% inflation rate. With such a rate,Chinese
people resort to savings by all means.They then come to the stock market
and invest,only to gradually realize that their investmentsend up in the
pockets of CCP's privileged clans."

Xie Tian said that whether it is the property bubblesor stock market, the
real problem had nothing to dowith the high savings rate, but with the CCP
clans.

NTD reporters Li Jing and Xiao Yu 2011-06-01
09:25:16http://www.ntdtv.com/xtr/gb/2011/06/01/a540200.html.-【禁闻】中国高
储蓄率导致资产泡沫？.html