【禁闻】资金链断裂蔓延 中国经济危机凸显

【禁闻】资金链断裂蔓延 中国经济危机凸显

【新唐人2011年10月24日讯】今年以来，美国和欧洲经济不景气，引发了各国对世界经
济�二次衰退�的担忧。而在中国，企业主因还不起贷款逃亡的现象频繁出现，资金链
断裂几乎蔓延所有行业，房地产已成为�地雷�。经济分析人士认为，这是中国经济崩
溃的不祥之兆。

日前，世界上两位知名的经济评论人士鲁里埃尔．鲁比尼和吉姆．夏诺斯，都对中国的
经济前景表示悲观，他们声称，经济硬着陆已经无法避免。

英国《金融时报》表示，在过去两三个月里，投资者们对中国的经济，笼罩在一股极度
悲观的情绪中，中国的经济危机凸显。

报导说，中国大陆目前从房地产到制造业，几乎所有行业都在经历资金链断裂的痛苦。
无论是政府的融资平台还是官方的投资公司，无论是银行还是上市公司，无论是国企还
是私企，无论是铁路投资还是其他产业的扩张，无论是温州还是鄂尔多斯……都面临着资
金链断裂的风险。

在被视为中国经济风向标的温州，仅八月和九月间就发生了40起企业主逃亡的案子，原
因在于无法偿还地下钱庄的贷款。数据显示，温州民间借贷市场规模将近1100亿元，比
去年同期增长近40%。

美国南卡罗莱纳大学教授谢田认为，由于民营的中小企业向来受国有银行的歧视，中共
银根紧缩的政策对他们的影响很大。

谢田：�他没有资金周转的时候，最近世界经济比较差，中国出口受挫，这些小企业生
存越来越危机的时候，从国有银行得不到钱，他们只能从地下钱庄去要钱。而更多的企
业陷入这种境况的时候呢，就会把利率越推越高，那些人明知道这个是不可能还得了
的，他还要铤而走险去借个高利贷，就�明中国的经济状况和金融状况都处在一个很危
机的情况。�

德国《世界报》认为，现在的中国，不仅地下钱庄面临资金链断裂的危机，国有商业银
行和股份制银行同样在劫难逃，特别是面临巨额的坏账威胁。地方债务按中共当局的说
法有10.7万亿元，其中40%今年到期。很多地方政府根本没有偿还能力，这将导致银行
再一次出现巨额不良资产。

另外，与资金链断裂并驾齐驱的风险是房地产。中国城市商业银行资金清算中心理事长
王世豪在9月份坦言，房地产20万亿元的贷款，已成为中国银行业的一颗�地雷�。

王世豪说，银行目前贷款总量是55万亿元，房地产行业的贷款已经占到银行贷款总量的
36%，开发商必须要到别的地方去拿钱，低廉资金时代已经结束。

有数据显示，中国大陆70座城市中有16座城市的新房价格8月份比7月份下降。虽然银行
方面声称可以承受房价下跌四成，但沪宁的退房潮仍显示有越来越多的人看淡市场，通
过在房地产市场套现填补其他资金缺口。

谢田教授认为，现在开发商手中握有大量房产滞销难以变现，商品房已经严重供过于
求，鄂尔多斯的�鬼城�现象层出不穷。房地产商的资金链开始紧张，还贷压力越来越
大。

谢田：�现在这个资金链断裂的事情已经迫在眉睫了。一旦由地下钱庄引起的，和国有
银行私下拿钱去放贷，这些问题集中爆发的时候，就会把连带的房地产市场的问题就一
起爆发出来。这样的话，中国的整个金融体系泡沫就会破灭。�

同时，资金短缺的危机还波及到了政府投资的重大项目。《第一财经日报》报导，全国
铁路建设由于资金问题，拖欠工人工资引发工人不满，建设单位、供应商难为无米之
炊。全国范围内停工的铁路项目里程在1万公里以上。

中铁隧道集团副总工程师王梦恕日前坦言：�从东北到西南，从西北到东南，大部分铁
路项目都停了。�

《德国金融时报》表示，北京对贷款的供应和价格已缺乏掌控，因为地下银行提供给经
济界的资金总和已超过了官方银行。中国目前不仅没有能力挽救欧洲，而且能否保持自
己的航向也成问题。

新唐人记者常春、李明飞、葛雷采访报导。

China's Economy Is Facing a Major Crisis

With the recent economic downturn in the U.S. and Europe,everyone is
worried that the global economy will slip back into a recession.In China,
many entrepreneurs have just 'walked away,'after defaulting on their loans,
causing a chain-reaction all across China.Real estate has become a
veritable "landmine".

Analysts see this as an ominous sign that the Chinese economyis close to
collapse.

Two world famous economic commentators,Nouriel Roubini and Jim Chanos,have
adopted a pessimistic stance on the Chinese economy,saying it is in for a
hard landing.

According to The Financial Times, in the past 2 to 3 months,investors are
in a rather gloomy mood over the Chinese economy, as they watch acrisis
emerging.

Reports indicate that from real estate to manufacturing,almost all areas in
mainland China are suffering froma loan-default chain reaction, including
banks,government's financing schemes, investment companies and joint-stock
banks.Whether its state-owned or private, whether its a rail investmentor
an expansion of some other industry,whether it is located in Wenzhou or
Ordos...all are facing the risk of this chain reaction.

Wenzhou city is said to be the weathervane ofChina's economy.But in August
and September alone, more than 40 caseswere reported of entrepreneurs
'skipping town' after being unable to repay theirloans.Statistics show that
the size of Wenzhou's private lending market,which is nearly RMB 11 billion
(US$1.72 billion), increased nearly 40 percentover the same period, last
year.

Professor Xie Tian of the University of South Carolina,believes that as
China tightens its monetary policy,small and medium private enterpriseswill
be impacted the most.

Xie Tian: "When they are tight on cash flow.China's exports are down, due
to a downturn in the global economy,thus, business owners are unable to get
loans fromstate-owned banks.Therefore, they have to borrow money
fromprivate lending companies.As more and more businesses do this, loan
rates will rise.

Even though these business owners know thatthey won't be able to repay
their loans,they nevertheless take the risk andborrow money from these
loan-sharking companies.It shows that the Chinese economy isin seriosus
financisal danger."

German Welt thinks that not only is the private lendingmarket in China
facing a capital chain reaction,but also state-owned commercial banks and
joint-stock banks,especially when they're saddled with many bad
loans.According to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP),local goverenment debt
is averaging about RMB 1.07 billion,or (US$167.62 million), 40% of which is
due this year.

Many local governments are unable to repay their debt,which is leading to
huge loan defaults.

Alongside the capital chain reaction, is the real estate market,which is
another risky side of the economy.China's central commercial bank clearing
center director,Wang Shihao, admitted in September that RMB 20
trillion(US$3.13 trillion) in outsatnding real estate loans,has been a
"landmine" to the Chinese banking industry.

Wang said, "The total amount of outstanding bank loansis RMB 55 trillion
(US$8.61 trillion), 36% of which is real estate.Developers must get their
money from somewhere else,thus, the low-interest loans era has ended.

Statistics show that in 16 of 70 mainland cities,the price of new
apartments in August is lower than in July.Although banks claim that they
can bear with real estate pricesfalling around 40%,the trend of people back
off their property purchasesin Shanghai and Nanjing, shows that more and
more people see the real estatemarket as bearish.People are taking their
money out of real estateto fill the capital hole they have in other
investments.

Professor Xie Tian now thinks that real estate developershave a lot of
apartments that they are finding hard to sell.In other words, the supply is
larger than the demand.Empty communities can be seen in many places.Real
estate developers' cash flow is not very good,and the pressure they feel in
repaying their loans is growing.

Xie Tian: "The capital chain reaction is right around the corner.Once it's
triggered in the private lending sectorand among state-owned banks, the
real estate market will be affected.When this happens, China's financial
bubble will pop."

Meanwhile, a shortage of cash is affectingbig government projects.First
Financial Daily reported that railway construction workersaren't being paid
on time, because these companies are short on cash.There are currently over
10,000 KM (6,213 miles)of suspended railway projects in the country.

Deputy chief engineer of China Railway Tunnel Group,Wang Mengshu, has
admitted: "From the northeastto the southwest, from the northwest to the
southeast,most of the current railway projects have stopped."

The Financial Times Deutschland says, "The CCP has lost controlof the
issuance of debt and the interest rate on loans,due to underground lending
institutes which providemore loans than banks.Not only does the CCP lack
the ability to save Europe,it itself is struggling with its own financial
problems and development.

NTD reporters Chang Chun, Li Mingfei and Ge Lei 2011-10-24
06:36:06http://www.ntdtv.com/xtr/gb/2011/10/24/a607375.html.-【禁闻】资金链
断裂蔓延-中国经济危机凸显.html