【禁闻】学者：中国投资有风险 商家要小心
【新唐人2011年4月13日讯】近几个月来，在北非和中东几个专制独裁国家，相继爆发
政治风暴，使得在当地投资的国外企业蒙受重大损失。同样是专制政权的中国，受到利
比亚和埃及革命浪潮影响，政治风险也跟着升高，中国经济社会学者提醒在中国投资的
外国商家，要有应对这类风险发生的准备。
在中国投资有什么风险？美国《华尔街日报》日前发表一篇《应对中国崩溃的商家指南
》，点出了在中国投资可能引爆的风险。
文章认为，由于专制政权的先天性不稳定，在中国做生意的外国商家要有准备，一旦中
国发生类似中东和北非变故时。
那么，如何面对中国投资环境的政治风险？目前旅居美国的中国经济社会学者何清涟认
为，对一个独裁国家的政治风险如果考虑不周，经济损失将十分惨重。
何清涟：「外商在中国考虑投资应该这样考虑。第一不要做长线投资。比如现在财经市
场遥遥无期以后才能盈利。那么我看这种投资就免了。」
中国自己投资利比亚就是一个活生生的例子。据了解，中国在利比亚承包的大型项目共
有50个，涉及的合同金额是188亿美元。利比亚「撒哈拉银行」在3月25号已向撤出利比
亚的「葛洲坝集团」、「中国水利水电建设」，以及「宏福建工」等中国公司，发出了
"预付款保函索赔函"，对每家企业的索赔额度都超过了数亿美元。
在《华尔街日报》11号发表的《三大问题可能拖累中国经济增长》文章中，提到的三大
问题， 一是房地产泡沫破裂，二是失衡的经济结构调整，第三个就是政治问题。
文章认为，政治动荡的爆发通常是出乎人们意料的。对高物价的不满在世界各地曾引发
过政治动荡。目前中国通货膨胀率为5%，同比上升了约一倍。
文章说，中共领导层正在压制受到中东示威活动影响的民主活动人士，尽管中国的街头
抗议活动很少，甚至可以说是没有。
中共总理温家宝在北京「两会」期间，曾经对外国记者说，任何把中国同西亚、北非发
生政治动荡的国家相类比都是不正确的。何清涟认为，两者确实不同，不同的地方是中
东国家是开明专制，而中国是黑暗专制，政府控制一切领域包括宗教。
何清涟：「他（温家宝）认为中国严控做得好所以不会发生。我认为这正好是中国专制
非常黑暗的地方。所以，民主的因素各种有关推动社会�步的因素不容易在中国社会发
芽成长。」
在网络上还有一篇署名陆蕊的文章，作者也针对投资中国的政治风险�行了分析。文章
说，来中国投资，你会遭遇到在其他的国家少有的"官险"。因为在中国做生意，搞实
体，靠的是官员关系网。一旦投资错误，将会血本无归。
而另外一个是「民险」。文章分析，中国的基尼系数目前已经超过0.4这个警戒线，达
到了0.5，表明财富过度集中于少数人。并且，中国大量出现个体上访、集体上访，请
愿、静坐、自焚、自残、下跪等等，并发展到武力解决、暴力反抗。
文章指出，虽然「官」、「民」力量的悬殊是官方得以「化解」的原因，而事件的背后
却蕴藏着统治者的政权危机。
笔者最后忠告，如果您对中国的「官险」和「民险」不了解，也没有应对措施的话，请
暂且不要去中国投资。
新唐人记者李庭、萧宇综合报导。
No Long-Term Investments in China
Due to the political storms in authoritarian countriesin North Africa and
the Middle East,foreign companies with local investmentsin these countries
suffered great losses.China also has an authoritarian regime.Impacted by
the revolutions in Libya and Egypt,the political risk in China also
increased.Scholars of Chinese economy and society remindto firms with
Chinese investments to be prepared.
What are the risks of investing in China?Wall Street Journal (WSJ) recently
published anarticle 『A Businessman's Guide to China's Collapse,'pointing
out that investments in China may be risky.
It said, due to the authoritarian regime's instability,foreign businesses
operating in China must preparefor the occurrence of similar political
events in China.
U.S.-based societal scholar, He Qinglian said,without consideration of
political risksin a dictatorship, it can lead to great economic losses.
He: "Foreign firms shouldn't have long-terminvestments in China. For
example, if the gains areonly in the future, I suggest businesses to not
invest."
China's investments in Libya are a good example.China signed 50 large-scale
contracts in Libya,amounting to USD18.8 billon. On March 25,Libya's Sahara
Bank maliciously claimedcompensation from Chinese companiesthat withdrew
from Libya, demandinghundreds of millions dollars per company.
On April 11, WSJ published an article about 3 issuesthat might drag down
China's economic growth,including the real estate bubble bursting,the
imbalance of economic restructuringand the political problem.
The article said political turmoil is often unexpected,and caused by
dissatisfaction with high prices.China's inflation rate is 5%, double from
a year ago.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) suppressesdemocratic activists in China,
although therehave been very few protests, the article continues.
During the CCP's 『two meetings' in Beijing,Premier Wen Jiabao told foreign
journalists that it isincorrect to compare China with the Middle East.He
Qinglian believes that the two are indeed different.In the Middle East,
there is enlightened despotism.In China, it is the darkest tyranny.The CCP
controls all areas, including religions.
He: "He (Wen) believes revolutions won't happendue to CCP's strict control.
I think it is just onedark aspect of authoritarian China. All
democraticelements that promote social progressare not easy to grow in
Chinese society."
An online article by Lu Rui analyzed China'spolitical risk. The article
said, foreign firms investingin China encounter rare "bureaucratic
risks,"because doing business relies on networkingwith officials, an
investment mistake will cost you
all.http://hi.baidu.com/scanball/blog/item/a90a37093dd5e0296b60fbbd.html
The other aspect is the "civilian risk." The articleanalyzes China's Gini
Coefficient, which passedthe warning level of 0.4, reaching 0.5, indicating
thatthe wealth is concentrated in the hands of a minority.Also, in China,
there are a lot of petitions, sit-ins,self-immolations, self-mutilation,and
they are not treated with military suppression.
Although the imbalance of power between the CCPand the people leads to
"harmonization," behindthese incidents is the ruling class' power crisis.
The author advised that those who don't understandChina's "bureaucratic
risk" or "civilian risk," and arenot prepared for them, should not invest
there.
NTD reporters Li Ting and Xiao Yu 2011-04-13
10:28:19http://www.ntdtv.com/xtr/gb/2011/04/13/a518137.html.-【禁闻】学
者：中国投资有风险-商家要小心.html
没有评论:
发表评论