【禁闻】IMF警告中国资产泡沫与破裂风险

【禁闻】IMF警告中国资产泡沫与破裂风险

【新唐人2011年4月14日讯】国际货币基金组织(IMF)4月11号发布《全球经济展望》报
告警告：中国可能正在形成信贷和资产泡沫，最终或将破裂。经济学家们指出，中国通
货膨胀正�入危险的领域，政府的宏观调控面临两难，目前中国经济正在被推向「滞胀
」。

国际货币基金组织的报告就中国经济面临的中期风险，发出异常严厉的警告。报告
说：中国的信贷和资产价格涨势「令人担忧」。报告对中国消费者价格涨势提出警
告，预计中国今年通货膨胀率可能达到5%，超过政府4%的目标。经济学家们普遍认
为，中国通货膨胀的根本原因是货币发行量过多及信贷过量。

北京天则经济研究所理事长茅于轼说：「通胀就是前几年投资太多，而且投到没有效益
的项目上赔钱，没有提供更多的产品。所以要改善我们的投资规则，让民间投资要启动
起来，现在投资都是政府在投，这个是通胀造成的原因。」

据《华尔街日报》报导，哥伦比亚大学商学院教授贝姆（David Beim的一篇重要的新论
文《中国增长的未来》（The Future of ChineseGrowth）指出，中国是在利用大量超
额贷款保持增长引擎的运转，中国经济恐怕要踩刹车。

据贝姆研究，中国的固定资本形成总额（Gross fixed capitalformation）从1980年占
GDP的29%上升至2010年的42%，大多数投入的资金来自国有商业银行给国有企业的贷
款，这也是导致低效和腐败的原因。而且，随着中共政府在本世纪初为中国的银行清理
帐本，价值数千亿美元的坏账奇迹般地消失了。

与此同时，中国通胀目前接近5%。温家宝在3月份的新闻发布会上说，通货膨胀就像是
一只老虎，如果放出来就很难再关�去。

《新世纪周刊》11号发表经济学家谢国忠的文章指出，中国的通货膨胀正在�入危险的
领域。有迹象表明，通胀的恐慌正在蔓延。囤积现象已不时可见。当囤积成为普遍现象
时，就很可能爆发社会危机。

至今，北京当局已连续出台了许多项调控政策，但是，物价和房价仍在不断飞涨。谢国
忠表示，行政权力无法治愈通胀，政府迫使企业不涨价只能暂时起作用。当投入成本每
年以20%到30%的速度增长时，不提价，就没有企业能生存。

4月5号，中国央行在半年内第4次加息0.25个百分点。谢国忠认为，这仍然远不足以「
消除人们对于政府制造通胀的恐惧」。他警告，资本效率的下降和持续的负实际利率导
致「滞胀」。严重的「滞胀」总是会导致货币贬值，并一定会触发金融危机。滞胀期间
将不可避免地发生社会动荡。

北京大学经济学院教授夏业良说：「因为中国人口这么多，经济如果萧条了，失业人口
增大的话，社会压力就特别大。而且官方其实更害怕的是失业压力加大，因为那个时
候，可能社会动荡不安。」

专家学者们警告，在日趋严峻的国内国际环境下，目前中国的增长模式正在将经济推向
「滞胀」，最终可能导致泡沫破裂和金融危机，由此引发的社会动荡，或使中国的政治
体制无法实现和平转型，同时加大�行根本的政治改革和经济改革的难度。

新唐人记者李元翰、柏妮综合报导。

IMF Warns China of Credit and Asset Bubbles

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) saysin its annual World Economic
Outlook reportthat China's economy faces increasing pressurefrom credit and
asset bubbles. Economists cautionedthe danger of inflation in Chinaleading
the country's economy to stagflation.

The IMF warned China of the risks in its economy:"There are mounting
concerns about the potentialfor steep corrections in property prices."It
estimated the inflation rate in China wouldreach 5%, higher than the
government estimated 4%.

Economists believe such inflation is caused byexcessive credit and currency
expansion.

Mao Yushi, president of Unirule Instituteof Economics: "Inflation means too
much investmentswere made in unprofitable projects, and didn't yieldmore
products. So we need to improve our investmentpatterns, and encourage
private investments.Now most investments are made by the government,which
is the cause of the inflation.

Prof. Davice Beim at Columbia Business School wrotein his recent article
"The Future of Chinese Growth"that China is relying on loan expansion to
protectthe growth rate of the economy, and it has to stop.

China's gross fixed capital formation has increasedsteadily from 29% to 42%
of GDP from 1980 to 2010.Most investments are made by state-owned
bankslending to state-owned companies, which also causesinefficiency and
corruption, according to Beim.

At the turn of the century, hundreds of billionsof dollars in bad debt have
disappeared,as China tried to clean up its banks.

The inflation rate in China is approaching 5%.Wen Jiabao compared inflation
to a tiger �once it's out, it's hard to lock it back in.

Economist Xie Guozhong wrote in Century Weeklythat China's inflation has
become very dangerous.Panic is spreading and people have started to
hoard.Once it becomes common, a social crisis will erupt.

Despite various government control measuresprices in China are still rising
drastically.

Xie believes the effects of administrative measuresare only temporary, and
cannot stop inflation.When investment costs increase 20-30% each year,no
company can survive without raising prices.

On April 5, China's Central Bank increased interestrates by 0.25%, the
fourth time in 6 months,which is still far from eliminatingthe fear of
inflation, according to Xie Guozhong.

Xie warns that capital inefficiency andnegative real interest rate will
cause stagflation,which in turn will lead to currency depreciation,and
eventually a financial and social crisis.

Prof. Xia Yeliang from Beijing University:"If the economy slows down and
unemployment rises,because of the large population,the Chinese society will
face tremendous pressure,which may cause unrest and instability."

Experts warn that under the current circumstances,China's growth pattern
will lead to stagflationin economy, and possibly a financial crisis.Social
movements caused by such crisismay hinder the process of politicaland
economical reforms in China.

NTD reporters Li Yuanhan and Bo Ni 2011-04-14
08:33:43http://www.ntdtv.com/xtr/gb/2011/04/14/a518582.html.-【禁闻】IMF警告
中国资产泡沫与破裂风险.html